瑞銀預(yù)測(cè)：南非世界杯巴西將奪冠(圖) -新概念英語

瑞銀預(yù)測(cè)：南非世界杯巴西將奪冠

Brazil was the winner of 2002 FIFA World Cup Korea/Japan。

巴西隊(duì)曾獲2002年韓國(guó)/日本世界杯足球賽的冠軍。

UBS bankers have used a mathematical model to predict the champions of the South Africa 2010 World Cup – and say England and Spain have just 4pc chance of winning。

瑞士銀行的分析人士利用數(shù)學(xué)模型對(duì)今年南非世界杯鹿死誰手進(jìn)行了預(yù)測(cè)-并且稱，英格蘭隊(duì)和西班牙隊(duì)僅有4%的奪冠幾率。

Brazil, who have claimed the trophy a record five times, are the likely winners this summer, with 22pc probability of victory, the Swiss investment bank said。

瑞士投資銀行表示，曾獲五次世界杯冠軍的巴西隊(duì)是本屆世界杯的奪冠熱門，有22%的奪冠幾率。

The UBS Wealth Management team found Spain, the European champions and bookmakers' favorite, to have just a 4pc shot at the title. Fabio Capello's England also has just a 4pc chance, it said。

瑞銀財(cái)富管理研究小組指出，歐洲杯冠軍、賭球者的最愛西班牙隊(duì)只有4%的奪冠幾率；而卡佩羅率領(lǐng)的英格蘭隊(duì)也區(qū)區(qū)只有4%的奪冠幾率。

"Football fans may feel that the European champions and firm fans favorite Spain is under-rated by the UBS model," the bank's global equity research team said in its World Cup 2010 research paper on Wednesday."And our local UK readers may feel the same about England’s chances. However, both teams have tended to be underachievers when it comes to the World Cup finals themselves. In the last three events, Spain and England were ranked amongst the strongest teams but did not make it beyond the quarter-final stage。

上周三，瑞銀的全球證券研究小組在一份針對(duì)2010年世界杯的調(diào)查報(bào)告中稱，“球迷們可能覺得西班牙隊(duì)被瑞銀的這個(gè)預(yù)測(cè)模型低估了。英國(guó)的球迷也會(huì)覺得英格蘭隊(duì)被低估了。然而，這兩支隊(duì)伍往往到了決賽階段就表現(xiàn)不佳。在頭三個(gè)賽季里，西班牙和英格蘭位列諸強(qiáng)，但卻紛紛止步于四分之一決賽?！?

"Brazil has the highest probability [of winning]."

“巴西最有可能贏?！?

UBS used its "econometric toolbox and quantitative models" to forecast the winner based on factors including historic results and the teams' current "Elo ratings" – which take account of not only recent wins, losses and defeats, but the conditions under which those events occurred. Beating a powerhouse like Brazil or Spain would improve a team’s Elo ranking much more than beating a smaller side like Malta or Andorra。

瑞銀根據(jù)各個(gè)球隊(duì)的歷史成績(jī)和當(dāng)前的積分排名情況(積分不單單考慮到球隊(duì)近期的輸贏，還考慮到了比賽中的具體情況。比如，擊敗一支強(qiáng)隊(duì)(如巴西隊(duì)、西班牙隊(duì))能夠獲得的積分要比擊敗一直弱隊(duì)(如馬耳他隊(duì)、安道爾隊(duì))多很多。)，利用“經(jīng)濟(jì)計(jì)量工具箱和定量模型”來預(yù)測(cè)本屆世界杯的冠軍得主。The bank also believes World Cup hosts South Africa, despite their uninspiring recent form, are all but guaranteed a place in the second round, rating their chances at 78pc.Brazil are the second most likely to progress with 74pc. The country least likely to progress, with a probability of just 29pc, is Paraguay, UBS said。

瑞銀還認(rèn)為，本屆世界杯東道主南非隊(duì)雖然近來士氣不旺，也有78%的幾率能進(jìn)入淘汰賽。巴西隊(duì)的晉級(jí)率位居第二，為74%。晉級(jí)率最低的當(dāng)屬巴拉圭隊(duì)，僅為29%。England was rated 63pc likely to escape the group stage and 21pc guaranteed to reach the semi-finals。

英格蘭隊(duì)的出線率為63%，進(jìn)入半決賽的幾率為21%。The UBS model was applauded in 2006 when it selected the winner, Italy. The bankers also correctly predicted 13 of the final 16, six of the final eight, and two of the semi-finalists。

在2006年世界杯的角逐中，瑞銀利用預(yù)測(cè)模型預(yù)測(cè)意大利隊(duì)最有可能奪冠，并最終言中，該預(yù)測(cè)模型也因此受到了人們的好評(píng)。此外，瑞銀還曾成功預(yù)測(cè)了16強(qiáng)中的13支球隊(duì)以及八強(qiáng)中的6支球隊(duì)。

However, when using the model for the 2008 European Championship, the forecast winner did not make it to the second round. "The moral of the story is that one needs to be humble about the predictive power of one’s model," the Wealth Management team said。

不過，該模型在2008年歐錦賽中預(yù)測(cè)的奪冠熱門球隊(duì)卻未能進(jìn)入第二輪。瑞銀財(cái)富管理團(tuán)隊(duì)對(duì)此表示，“對(duì)該模型的預(yù)測(cè)能力我們還是保守一點(diǎn)為妙?！盪BS's predicted quarter-finalists

瑞銀預(yù)測(cè)能夠進(jìn)入四分之一決賽的球隊(duì)

Country              Likelihood of winning World Cup 2010

Brazil               22pc

Germany              18pc

Italy                13pc

Netherlands           8pc

France                6pc

Argentina             5pc

Spain                 4pc

England               4pc