新概念三Lesson 33中的主人公真是倒霉。好像因?yàn)橐患∈抡兄铝艘贿B串的霉運(yùn)?，F(xiàn)實(shí)生活中好像也會(huì)這樣呢！從結(jié)果往前推的話，往往會(huì)發(fā)現(xiàn)成因是很偶然很小的一件事兒或者一個(gè)物體甚至是一句話……這樣子的連鎖反應(yīng)可以稱之為蝴蝶效應(yīng)嗎？文化大爆炸為大家介紹一下啥是蝴蝶效應(yīng)。
What is the butterfly effect?
The butterfly effect is a term used in chaos theory to describe how small changes to a seemingly unrelated thing or condition (also known as an initial condition) can affect large, complex systems. The term comes from the suggestion that the flapping of a butterfly's wings in South America could affect the weather in Texas, meaning that the tiniest influence on one part of a system can have a huge effect on another part.
蝴蝶效應(yīng)是混沌學(xué)中的一種現(xiàn)象，指的是在一個(gè)動(dòng)力系統(tǒng)中，初始條件下微小的變化能帶動(dòng)整個(gè)系統(tǒng)的長期的巨大的連鎖反應(yīng)。這個(gè)名字來自于一個(gè)舉例：一只南美洲亞馬遜河流域熱帶雨林中的蝴蝶，偶爾扇動(dòng)幾下翅膀，可以在兩周以后引起美國德克薩斯州的一場龍卷風(fēng)。
Origins in Weather Prediction
The concept of the butterfly effect is attributed to Edward Norton Lorenz, a mathematician and meteorologist, who was one of the first proponents of chaos theory. Lorenz was running global climate models on his computer one day and, hoping to save himself some time, ran one model from the middle rather than the beginning. The two weather predictions, one based on the entire process, including initial conditions, and another based on a portion of the data, starting with the process already part way completed, diverged drastically. Lorenz, along with most scientists of his time, had expected the computer models to be identical regardless of where they started. Instead, tiny, unpredictable variations caused the two models to differ.
蝴蝶效應(yīng)是氣象學(xué)家，同時(shí)也是首位提出混沌學(xué)的數(shù)學(xué)家洛倫茲提出來的。這位氣象學(xué)家制作了一個(gè)電腦程序，可以模擬氣候的變化。為了節(jié)省時(shí)間，他從中間開始了這個(gè)電腦程序。他發(fā)現(xiàn)兩次天氣的預(yù)告結(jié)果完全不一樣，一次是根據(jù)原始數(shù)據(jù)，運(yùn)行全過程的程序得出的；另一次是從已經(jīng)完成的分析開始的。和大多數(shù)同行的科學(xué)家一樣，洛倫茲認(rèn)為不論從程序的哪一步開始運(yùn)行，計(jì)算機(jī)模型的結(jié)果應(yīng)該是一樣的。然而，事實(shí)上，微小的不可預(yù)料的變量會(huì)造成不同的結(jié)果。
Intrigued by the results, Lorenz began creating a mathematical explanation that would show the sensitive dependence of large, complex systems like the weather. Sensitive dependence means that the development of the system depends on a wide number of factors. To simplify his findings, Lorenz coined the butterfly explanation that has since become so widely known.
對實(shí)驗(yàn)結(jié)果感到非常好奇，洛倫茲開始嘗試用數(shù)學(xué)原理解釋大型復(fù)雜的系統(tǒng)（如氣候）對初始條件敏感性的依賴現(xiàn)象。對初始條件敏感的依賴性指的是系統(tǒng)中大量的變量都能對系統(tǒng)的發(fā)展產(chǎn)生影響。為了讓他的理論更為簡單易懂些，洛倫茲運(yùn)用了現(xiàn)在人人皆知的那個(gè)蝴蝶比喻。
Other Systems
In human behavior, it may be possible for small initial changes to render behavior unpredictable. For example, someone who has committed suicide are often left wondering what could have caused the death. They might agonize over the myriad small details they did not see, but which could have predicted the suicide. The butterfly effect might suggest that a huge range of experiences, dispositions, and genetic, physical, and emotional factors were too many to account for in the person's actions.
在人類的行為中,可能開頭很小的變化會(huì)導(dǎo)致難以預(yù)測的行為。例如，有些自殺的人讓他人無法理解為什么他會(huì)選擇自殺?？赡軙?huì)是因?yàn)榕匀藷o法發(fā)現(xiàn)的無數(shù)苦惱的小細(xì)節(jié)，但它們的確是自殺的預(yù)示。蝴蝶效應(yīng)可能表明人的行動(dòng)會(huì)受到很多很多的因素影響：經(jīng)歷，性情，基因，身體狀況，情緒狀況等。
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備考資料歷年真題
